Lula’s plan to build bridges with Brazil’s military

In one of the most iconic phrases in Brazilian political history, journalist and politician Carlos Lacerda said of former President Getulio Vargas: “He must not run for president. If he does, he must not win. If he does, he must not take office. If he does, he must not govern.” Vargas, who had run the country between 1930 and 1945, won the election in question in 1950, but led an embattled government and committed suicide in the presidential palace before the end of his term.

Over seven decades later, left-wing parties in Brazil fear that the same logic might be applied to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He is the early favorite for the 2022 presidential race by some distance, polling over 20 points ahead of incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. But the head of state’s recent moves suggest he will not take defeat with grace. Many political brokers believe he will try to barricade himself in the presidency.

Fifteen months away from polling day, Mr. Bolsonaro is already doing his best to sow doubt over Brazil’s voting system, claiming the electronic voting machines are rigged against him, and that “they” (that is, the political establishment) “want to bring the bearded old man back.” Despite Mr. Bolsonaro’s drive to have paper ballots introduced sinking in the House, the Bolsonaro clan is continuing in its threats to prevent elections from happening next year should they not be instated.

Recent reports suggest some of the senior Armed Forces commanders have his back. In July, newspaper O Estado de S.Paulo reported that Defense Minister Walter Braga Netto — to whom the Joint Chiefs of Staff directly report — threatened a military coup if Congress failed to indulge the president’s push for paper ballots. 

A farcical military parade staged by the Navy this past...