Bolsonaro lays out his roadmap to re-election

With 17 months left in his term, President Jair Bolsonaro is — more than ever — placing his entire focus on making sure his re-election bid is successful. But while macroeconomic numbers suggest Brazil is recovering from the 2020 pandemic downturn at a faster-than-expected rate, his administration is facing its most challenging moment yet. 

The president is dogged by corruption scandals which suggest that government officials sought to make a dishonest buck out of Covid-19 vaccine purchases, while Brazilians were dying in their thousands on a daily basis. Meanwhile, the Senate’s Covid hearings committee — which returns to action next week — has offered an endless cycle of bad press for Mr. Bolsonaro and his cabinet.

As the Delta variant starts to spread around the country, fears of a new wave of infections could once again bring attention to the government’s shortcomings in its pandemic response. Deaths are rising in five states (including Rio de Janeiro) and, if the trend is replicated in other urban centers, coronavirus restrictions could return, causing irritation among voters.

The administration has tried to pin the blame on state governors, but the strategy has not been entirely successful. Polls show that the majority of Brazilians believe Mr. Bolsonaro is directly responsible for the country’s pandemic nightmare, which explains why his popularity has never been lower. 

Since 2020, the way Brazilians see the president is intrinsically linked to their views on his government’s pandemic response.

Albeit on the ropes, the government does seem to have a flight plan in place for the 2022 election. This strategy includes aggressive political messaging (with plenty of attacks on democratic institutions and the press), economic stimulus measures, and pro-market reforms.

A war of narratives

Over the first half of this year, President Bolsonaro has ramped up his criticism of democratic institutions — suggesting that the Armed Forces are “his” and trying to sow doubt around the country’s electronic voting system. 

Yesterday, Mr. Bolsonaro promised to reveal, once and for all, how Brazil’s electronic ballot boxes can be tampered with, despite the lack of any credible fraud allegations having surfaced since the electronic system was introduced a quarter of a century ago. However, instead...