2 million Covid-19 cases: the anatomy of a disaster

By the time you read this, Brazil will have surpassed the mark of 2 million confirmed cases of Covid-19, making it only the second country in the world to have done so, along with the U.S. Almost five months since Latin America’s largest country recorded its first case of coronavirus, infection numbers are still increasing.

Brazil’s Covid-19 curve has shown no signs of flattening; in fact, the progression of the disease has followed a different dynamic to other majorly affected nations around the world, characterized by rapid increases and subsequent decelerations. Brazil has not seen a Covid-19 peak. Instead, case numbers have continued to grow steadily.

Since the week beginning June 23, the 7-day rolling average of new daily cases has remained largely stable at around 35,000 per day. The plateau is even more defined when it comes to Covid-19 deaths: for the last seven weeks, the 7-day average of deaths stands at 1,000 per day.

While this suggests the spread of the virus is unlikely to get any worse, 35,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths every day is no reason for celebration.

According to Marcelo Gomes, coordinator of the InfoGripe system of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), a medical research...