What would a Biden presidency mean for Bolsonaro?

The vast majority of Americans are largely dismissive of the rest of the world, and even those who are not see the globe through a lens of validating their own beliefs about the U.S. This is something that Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has failed to understand and it could end up being a thorn in the side of his political project.

Allow me to explain.

Mr. Bolsonaro’s biggest foreign policy gamble was pursuing total alignment with Donald Trump, mimicking the notoriously erratic U.S. president in an attempt to build some sort of “special relationship” with his northern neighbors. The Brazilian leader believed this would clear Brazil’s path to achieve long-term goals, such as membership of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) or even a trade deal with the world’s richest economy. 

“Brazil and the U.S. stand side by side in their efforts to ensure liberties and respect for traditional family lifestyles, respect to God our creator, and stand against gender ideologies and politically incorrect attitudes and against fake news,” he said in his March 2019 visit to the White House.

It is probably true that Mr. Bolsonaro’s path to the presidency would have been much harder had American voters elected Hillary Clinton in 2016. Mr. Trump’s win served to both normalize and galvanize far-right politics across the globe. Many voters shrugged off Mr. Bolsonaro’s extremism and anti-democratic tendencies by citing the example of the U.S. electing Mr. Trump.

Four years later, Mr. Trump faces a challenging scenario as coronavirus cases continue to surge in his country. National polls have regularly placed challenger Joe Biden with double-digit advantages — and the democrat is also leading in key swing states. At this point, Mr. Biden clearly has the inside track to win the November election.

And that could jeopardize Mr. Bolsonaro’s entire foreign policy strategy.

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What does Brazil mean to the U.S.?

The truth is that neither Brazil nor the rest of the world — barring perhaps Israel — is particularly important to U.S. voters or Mr. Trump. For all their sycophancy, Mr. Bolsonaro and his Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo — who once penned an essay depicting Mr. Trump as the savior of Western civilization — could not stop the U.S. slapping a travel ban on Brazilians in light of...