Sergio Moro: from judge, to minister, to … political pundit?

On April 24, with the coronavirus crisis getting more and more severe by the day, Sergio Moro shocked Brazil’s political world by announcing his resignation from the Justice Ministry — dishing out accusations against President Jair Bolsonaro in the process, claiming he attempted to meddle with the Federal Police in order to protect his friends and relatives from law enforcement. Mr. Moro triggered the biggest political crisis of the administration so far — and many pondered whether Mr. Bolsonaro’s anti-corruption façade would withstand the hit.

Two months later, the Feds are conducting an investigation to determine whether the president stepped out of bounds, but crucially, Mr. Bolsonaro is still standing. His approval ratings remain at around 30 percent — a similar level to before Mr. Moro’s resignation — even if the rate of voters who say the president can never be trusted sits dangerously at 43 percent.

Since losing his high-profile cabinet minister, the president has managed to build a — albeit fragile — congressional coalition for the first time since taking office, thanks to intense horse-trading. Meanwhile, the coronavirus emergency salary established in April is increasing Mr. Bolsonaro’s popularity among poorer voters.

On the other hand, Sergio Moro’s political future is much less clear. For political scientist Carlos Melo, a professor at the São Paulo-based Insper business school, the former Justice Minister left the government as a less consequential figure than when he joined. 

“Those who were against Mr. Moro, due to his track record, have not changed their minds. And his backers were split between staying loyal to him or President Bolsonaro. You can’t say he won by exiting the cabinet the way he did — he actually lost popularity among far-right voters.”

As a judge in the sprawling Operation Car Wash investigations, Mr. Moro became the face of the...