Almost two years on, would Bolsonaro’s voters back him again in future?

Jair Bolsonaro is facing his worst popularity crisis since taking office as president in January 2019, according to polls. His denialism toward the Covid-19 pandemic and the accusation he tried to interfere in the Federal Police in order to shield his sons from investigation were the two pivotal facts of his dip in polling performance. In May, according to the latest data available, President Bolsonaro reached his peak rejection rate and lowest approval figures. Per a XP/Ipespe survey, 50 percent of respondents classified Mr. Bolsonaro’s administration as either ‘bad’ or ‘terrible’ — 14 percentage points more than in March. Supporters who rate it as ‘good’ or ‘great’ fell to just 25 percent. 

However, these findings do not mean President Bolsonaro is electorally isolated, nor does it mean he is not a prime contender for winning a second term in 2022. His core support base has proven to be resistant to outside criticism and allegations of wrongdoing. Furthermore a large number of the voters who plumped for Mr. Bolsonaro in 2018 — even those who are dissatisfied with his government — are unconvinced that other parties can provide any better solutions.

By studying Jair Bolsonaro’s voters, political scientist Camila Rocha and sociologist Esther Solano have attempted to analyze the different kinds of discourses found in the electorate. They built a 27-person sample of voters who answered “yes”, “no,” and “I don’t know” when asked whether Mr. Bolsonaro would leave the presidency, and the resulting analysis allowed them to separate this group into three categories: faithful to the president, critical of the president, and regretful for having voted for Jair Bolsonaro. 

The qualitative research provides a portrait of President Bolsonaro’s support base and indicates how he lost part of his voters — besides their willingness to go back to supporting the president in 2022. Despite the decrease in popularity, the study concluded that Mr. Bolsonaro maintained the support...