Brazilian gubernatorial elections remain wide open

With all of the buzz surrounding the presidential election, it is easy to forget that the Brazilian electorate will be casting six votes come Election Day on October 7. Besides casting ballots for the next president, Brazil will also elect federal and state lawmakers, senators, and governors. And it is this latter race which could have the most direct impact on the lives of Brazilians.

In the country’s key states, the gubernatorial disputes are set to go right down to the wire. Here, we break down the current state of play in the six most important state races.

São Paulo

In São Paulo, Brazil’s most populous and wealthiest state, all signs point to a two-horse race between center-right candidates João Doria and Paulo Skaf. This week’s opinion polls give Mr. Doria, who made his first foray into politics when elected Mayor of São Paulo in 2016, a slender lead. Pollsters Datafolha and Ibope show the Social Democracy Party candidate as having 25 and 20 percent, respectively, with Mr. Skaf close behind on 20 and 18 percent.

Incumbent Márcio França (who took over the governorship in April when Geraldo Alckmin stepped down to run for president) is sitting on 4 percent, level with Workers’ Party candidate Luiz Marinho.

São Paulo’s track record works in Mr. Doria’s favor. As a traditionally conservative state, the center-right Social Democracy Party has won every gubernatorial election in São Paulo since 1994. Last time around, in 2014, Geraldo Alckmin won re-election in the first round with 57 percent of valid votes. Mr. Doria won’t have it nearly as easy, however, as the election seems set to go to a runoff.

His campaign will also be looking nervously at rejection rate polls, which show the former Mayor of São Paulo on top with 32 percent. Voters in the state...