How much support does Bolsonaro have in Congress?

As mentioned here several times, the characteristics of Brazil’s political-institutional regime — especially since the 1988 Constitution — make the costs of governing very high indeed. That is why I want to address the relationship between the government and the so-called “Big Center” through a more holistic view of Brazilian politics. In short, governability is understood as the efficacy of promoting a given administration’s agenda in Congress, where laws and public policies are proposed and discussed. In the case of Brazil, the favorable environment for the creation of several political parties — which leads to hyper-fragmentation in legislative spaces — among other conditions, have made it practically impossible for the president’s party to wield a majority of seats in either chamber of Congress.

Clearly, having a majority in the legislature ensures the smooth functioning of an administration’s programmatic agenda. In parliamentary systems, for instance, holding a majority is a prerequisite to appoint a prime minister and form a government. As it happens, due to the various representatives elected by dozens of parties in Brazil, there is a need for the Executive to form a coalition that is often heterogeneous and barely aligned in ideological terms. 

Specialized literature on the subject has always pointed toward the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) party as the pivotal force in government coalitions. From Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002) to Michel Temer (2016-2018), presidents who had the MDB party in their corner were able to achieve congressional majorities. In...