Could agribusiness save Macri’s presidency in Argentina?

Looking at the numbers, there is no reason for Argentina President Mauricio Macri to be cheerful. The neoliberal head of state has just a few months remaining in his term and seems to be on his way out, with little to shout about from his three and a half years in charge. 

Seeing no realistic possibility of re-election—after being crushed in primary elections by Kirchnerist candidate Alberto Fernández—Mr. Macri’s economy keeps shrinking. With a 54.5 percent inflation rate in the last 12 months—even higher than 2018’s record of 47.6 percent—2019 is on its way to be a tragic moment of reckoning for the country’s conservatives. Poverty and unemployment rose, and buying a single USD requires almost ARS 60. 

Besides all the government’s macroeconomic mistakes, including a failed liberal project involving no privatizations, Mr. Macri had a different stance toward one specific sector: agribusiness.

The last four years in Argentina have been something of a see-saw. In 2016, tragedy hit with Mr. Macri’s unpopular tarifazo plan—involving raising energy prices by hundreds of percent—and a downturn in economic growth. However, 2017 was far less lousy, seeing investments increase and inflation calm. The following year, on the other hand, was disastrous.

With the U.S. Fed bumping up the interest rate, foreign investors fled Argentinian funds and the local currency melted. But the big issue occured in the fields, with Argentina suffered from its worst drought in 50 years. Amid a series of problems, one of South America’s top soybean producers had another issue to solve.

In Mr. Macri’s final year, results haven’t made much improvement. In a not-so-liberal measure, he even announced a freeze in the price of essential goods and public services. However, agribusiness results recently dominated much of newspapers’...