Bolsonaro rally raises all the risks with little reward

Cornered by accusations of orchestrating a coup levied by the Federal Police, Brazil’s far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro has urged his supporters to rally in São Paulo in his support this Sunday. 

If all goes according to his plan, Mr. Bolsonaro will be greeted by hundreds of thousands of people wearing green and yellow in what will be the first major pro-Bolsonaro demonstration since January 8, 2023 — when hordes of his supporters stormed and ransacked government buildings in Brasília in the vain hope of creating the conditions for a military intervention that would bring Mr. Bolsonaro back to power. 

In a petition filed with the Federal Prosecution Office, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party expressed fears of January 8 repeating itself. The party urged authorities to prevent Mr. Bolsonaro from turning the rally into an illegal campaign event. (In Brazil, candidates can only solicit votes in tightly regulated moments — but most, if not all, circumvent the rules with de facto electoral rallies in which they make their entire campaign pitch but stop short of explicitly soliciting votes.)

The event comes a few months before the start of campaigns for the October municipal elections. 

It also comes at a time when Brazil is in the international press spotlight, with global audiences tuned into G20 events in the country and the diplomatic crisis with Israel sparked by Lula’s comparison of Israel’s military actions in Gaza to the Holocaust.

According to Mr. Bolsonaro, the rally is aimed at defending “the democratic rule of law” and himself. 

Since leaving the presidency at the end of 2022, Mr. Bolsonaro has faced multiple investigations (from falsifying vaccination records to orchestrating to overthrow democracy) and has been deemed ineligible for office after courts found him guilty of electoral crimes.

Now, arrest appears to be a possible (if not imminent) reality for him in the near future. Authorities recently forced him to surrender his passport, in what was an ominous sign for the former president. With that in mind, Mr. Bolsonaro is trying to rally supporters to his side.

He has made clear his desire to receive a bonafide image of his popularity — that is, a sea of people wearing green and yellow in his homage. 

For political analysts, a show of political strength will serve him on different fronts: from ensuring that allies will think twice before abandoning him — or even turning on him, in the case of alleged co-conspirators facing...