Brazil braces as Election Day could turn ugly

Brazilian citizens choose their leader for the next four years today. But unlike other election cycles, this year’s vote might not end once all ballots are counted. 

If former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins a third (non-consecutive) term, incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is expected to challenge the results and drag the country into an unprecedented political crisis that could last until inauguration day on January 1.

Since taking office in 2019, Mr. Bolsonaro has engaged in a crusade to discredit the very electoral system that allowed him — and three of his sons — to win multiple races for Congress, city council, and the presidency. 

Over the past week, his team claimed that radio stations around Brazil were not giving his campaign ads the same airtime as those of Lula — which he is entitled to in the runoff. Some of his allies even vented the idea of postponing the election, a blatantly unconstitutional suggestion.

The final opinion polls suggest we are heading to one of the tightest runoffs in Brazilian democratic history, only adding tensions ahead of the count.

All major pollsters have Lula ahead, but his lead varies drastically. Ipec, a renowned institute, has him 8 points in front. Readings by Datafolha and Atlas Intel (the latter was one of the most accurate in the first round) show a gap of 4 and 6 points, respectively. Meanwhile, Quaest has Mr. Bolsonaro and Lula in a statistical tie — it shows Lula with a 2.8-point lead but trending down.

The polls underestimated Jair Bolsonaro in the October 2 first round, placing him around the mid-30s. Despite historical rejection rates for a president seeking re-election, Mr. Bolsonaro qualified for the runoff, posting a very competitive 43.2 percent, behind Lula’s 48.4 percent.

No sitting president has ever lost re-election. But no presidential candidate was able to muster a come-from-behind win after trailing in the first round. This election will shatter at least one of these two postulates. 

Another element of tension comes from the way Brazil counts votes. Southern states and the Federal District usually submit their data first, and they tend to elect conservative candidates. The thoroughly pro-Lula Northeast, meanwhile, typically has its votes computed later.

The 2014 presidential race, the closest to date, is an example of that. Center-right candidate Aécio Neves started miles ahead of the Workers’ Party’s Dilma Rousseff. But Ms. Rousseff eventually took the lead after over 88 percent...