Runoff result shows Bolsonaro is stronger than polls suggested

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who governed Brazil between 2003 and 2010, came close to winning his old job back in an outright victory in the country’s presidential election on Sunday, as voters expressed their rejection of incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. However, the former president didn’t obtain quite the margin he had hoped.

With 99 percent of the votes tallied, Lula had 48.4 percent of the vote. He needed to clear the 50-percent mark to avoid a runoff. Despite historical rejection rates for a president seeking re-election, Mr. Bolsonaro qualified for the runoff, posting a very competitive 43.3 percent.

“I understand that a part of the population wants change,” said Mr. Bolsonaro, after the result. “But there are certain changes that can make things worse.”

The president refused to respond to his criticism of Brazil’s electronic voting system, which he has labeled as susceptible to fraud, without providing a shred of proof. 

Regardless, it is abundantly clear that major pollsters vastly underestimated Mr. Bolsonaro’s support. The last surveys before the vote had Lula winning just over 50 percent, while the incumbent was tipped to receive a total in the mid-30 percent range.

“One conclusion seems inescapable: Bolsonarism seems to be the main political force in Brazil,” Mario Sergio Lima, an analyst for Medley Advisors, said in The Brazilian Report’s 2022 election live broadcast. “Second only to anti-Bolsonarism, perhaps.”

As he often does, Lula resorted to a football analogy to describe the results. “For us this is just like going to overtime,” he said from a hotel in São Paulo city center. “Every Brazilian election I ran went to the runoff. Every single one of them. The runoff is a chance for one to mature their proposals and their conversation with society.”

The former president had tried to convince voters that he would be able to replicate the economic success Brazil witnessed during his time in office, when the country benefited from a commodity super-cycle.

During the Lula years, the median wealth per adult in Brazil rose by six times. Twelve years, two recessions, and a pandemic later, that wealth has been cut in half. 

“For the despair of many, I’ll have an extra 30 days to campaign,” said Lula. I...