How presidential elections are decided in Brazil

When political scientists Alberto Carlos Almeida and Tiago Garrido turned in their manuscript for “The Hand and the Glove: What Gets a President Elected” last November, they had no idea what would happen in the months that followed. Published this month, however, the book seeks to predict this year’s hotly contested Brazilian presidential election, using previous votes as a base of comparison.

They conclude that it will be an election of change, even if not in the classic sense of the term. That is because the head-and-shoulders favorite Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has already served two terms as Brazil’s president. 

But there is a strong feeling of dissatisfaction among Brazilians regarding the state of the country, especially with regard to the economy, and a general belief that changing the current president will bring about improvements. 

To make this prediction, the two authors analyzed recent polls as well as surveys from all elections since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1985. They used an image evoked in Machado de Assis’s 1874 romance novel A Mão e a Luva (The Hand and the Glove, from where their work takes its name), in which a girl is faced with a choice between two suitors. 

The title of the book alludes to the perfect matrimonial match being like a tailored glove slipping on to the hand it was made for. As the book’s first chapter reads: “This is how it happens in presidential...