Brazil declared victory against Covid. But cases are now on the up again

It has been two months since Brazil’s Health Ministry announced that it would lift the state of health emergency that had been implemented in 2020 due to Covid. For public health experts heard by The Brazilian Report, it is possible to say that the move — an electoral stunt detached from the reality of emergency rooms — has already steered the country’s pandemic outlook in the wrong direction.

Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga made a televised address announcing the end of the state of emergency on April 17. In what has become a recurring pattern within the Jair Bolsonaro administration, the announcement came before any actual measures were enacted. A decree would only be signed five days later — and the end of the state of emergency enforced on May 22.

On the day of the first announcement, Brazil’s seven-day rolling average of new daily Covid deaths hovered around the 100 mark. That average is now at 151, according to Brazil’s official coronavirus dashboard, a 43-percent bump. Over the same period, the daily average of new cases has tripled.

Brazil’s Covid transmission rate has risen from 0.49 on March 15 to 1.77 now, in mid-June, according to the InfoTracker panel, an initiative by researchers at the University of São Paulo. It means that every 100 infected people will contaminate another 177, who in turn will pass on the virus to 313 — which shows an accelerated spread.

The rise of infections is observed despite multiple problems with data...