The implosion of the Brazilian “third way”

Until very recently, Brazilian mainstream media had spent a lot of time talking up the existence of a massive pool of “Neither-Nor” voters. That is, citizens who want neither Jair Bolsonaro nor former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to win the presidency in October,  estimated at almost 40 percent of the electorate. At one point, there were a solid half-dozen politicians describing themselves as “the third way” between the two frontrunners. All of a sudden, these candidates have dropped out of contention in quick succession.

First came the news that São Paulo Governor João Doria would no longer be throwing his name into the hat. Just hours later, similar reports appeared concerning former Justice Minister Sergio Moro – and this is after several other prospective “third-way” candidates had fallen by the wayside.

Mr. Doria eventually backed down from backing down. But his indecision – and ultimate decision to stay in the game – is symptomatic of the third way’s inability to get things right.

Messrs. Doria and Moro have both been held back by a lack of support within their own ranks as well as an inability to win the hearts and minds of Brazilians at large and show themselves to be viable alternatives to Brazil’s most popular but divisive figures.

For months, the political establishment has operated on the base scenario that Mr. Bolsonaro and Lula are the only candidates with a true shot at the presidency. Third-way candidates are stagnating in the polls, hitting the high single digits at best. And with parties focused instead on building sizable congressional benches to wield power over the next administration, their bids were becoming less plausible by the day.

Together, Messrs. Doria and Moro account for around 10 percent of voting intentions. “With fewer players in the race, polarization between Lula and President Bolsonaro will enhance further,” says Leandro Gabiati, a political analyst for consultancy Dominium. “It makes it very possible that the first round becomes a de facto runoff election.”

Squandered political capital

The case of Sergio Moro is an interesting one, for every step the former judge-turned cabinet member-turned politician has made since he was...