Bolsonaro failed to plant his flag in Brazil’s poorest region

About a year ago, Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro had bold plans to conquer the Northeast. The country’s poorest region had proved immune to the president’s charms, being the only part of the country where Mr. Bolsonaro did not win a majority of votes in the 2018 election. It is also where his rejection rates are the highest, by some distance. Even so, at one point it seemed possible that the government could muster the momentum to take over what has traditionally been an electoral stronghold for the center-left Workers’ Party.

Mr. Bolsonaro was empowered by rising approval rates among poorer classes — a knock-on effect of the coronavirus emergency salary program first created by Congress in April 2020. But when the government’s tight budget cut the flow of handouts — monthly benefits were halved in September 2020 and then stopped altogether for four months at the turn of the year —, the entire strategy collapsed.

Indeed, not only did Mr. Bolsonaro lose support in the Northeast, but a wide array of demographics began turning their back on him. Among these groups were Evangelical Christians, some of the president’s most fervent supporters in the 2018 election. According to a September Datafolha poll, Mr. Bolsonaro’s net approval ratings are only positive among business owners at this moment.

This prompted a rethink in the Bolsonaro camp, resulting in a complete strategy shift ahead of next year’s election. Instead of fighting to gain the support of new constituencies that were outside of his range of influence three years ago, Mr. Bolsonaro has focused on keeping the voters he still has. 

While his overall support has waned, it is believed that his core group of backers should be large enough to take him into the election’s second round, where he...