The keys to impeach Jair Bolsonaro

Politicians from 11 different parties from across the political spectrum filed an impeachment request against Jair Bolsonaro on Wednesday, listing 23 offenses he is said to have committed in office. The presentation of the so-called “super” impeachment request featured odd political bedfellows, including Trotskyist parties and ultra-libertarian members of Congress.

Impeachment requests against Mr. Bolsonaro number in their hundreds. This latest one might also be a non-starter, were it not for this broad — and improbable — alliance behind it, as well as its timing. The president not only trails significantly in polls for 2022, but his administration is also riddled with corruption allegations related to Covid-19 vaccine deals.

Suspicions concerning an overpriced deal for 20 million doses of the Indian-made Covaxin immunizer may transform perceptions of Mr. Bolsonaro’s pandemic management from callous and reckless to outrightly corrupt. Even though the Health Ministry suspended the deal after news of the scandal came to light, the president faces a malfeasance probe.

By this point, most administrations would have been kicked out of office, but Jair Bolsonaro has proven to be surprisingly resilient. He has thus far survived a deadly pandemic on which his administration consistently failed to act, the worst economic crisis on record, international pressure over environmental policies, and a multitude of corruption allegations.

Despite the multiple crises, House Speaker Arthur Lira — who holds sole jurisdiction over initiating impeachment proceedings — says the political conditions to oust the president are still lacking. This positioning, though, is hardly set in stone. Mr. Lira’s political group, a federation of parties known as the “Big Center,” is known for its capacity to adapt to changing contexts.

If the cost of supporting Mr. Bolsonaro comes to outweigh that of axing him, Mr. Lira could easily change his mind. However, the path to impeachment remains a tricky one at this point.

Here is how events would have to fall into place for impeachment to become a genuine possibility.

The legal grounds for impeachment

Brazilian law holds that a president may be impeached if he commits a crime of responsibility: offenses against the Republic, other branches of power, national security, or breaking budgetary rules, among others.

At this point, the list of Mr. Bolsonaro’s potential crimes ticks many boxes, from...