Brazil’s 2022 election: Lula’s vote to lose?

For decades, the name Ibope became synonymous with electoral polling in Brazil. In 2014, however, the group was sold to British data analytics and brand consulting group Kantar — with its political polling branch ceasing operations in January 2021. The group’s main executives then launched Ipec, a pollster that immediately became a major market player due to its founders’ credentials. And last week, Ipec grabbed all the headlines with its latest 2022 election poll, showing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva streets ahead of incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

While the election is still 15 months away and any prognostications are premature at this point, what we can say is that Lula benefits from one of the most powerful currencies in Brazilian politics: name recognition.

Since Brazil’s return to democracy in the mid-1980s, Lula has run for president in all but two elections (2010 and 2014, when his Workers’ Party was represented by Dilma Rousseff, his successor). He even stood for the 2018 election while still in jail for...