Will Brazil’s prosecutor general kill Bolsonaro’s probe?

Since Friday evening, Brazil’s news cycle has revolved around the video recording of an April 22 meeting held by President Jair Bolsonaro and his cabinet. It was an explicit depiction of a far-right, illiberal administration for everyone to see. As the country faces the worst pandemic of the century — which might very well evolve into a humanitarian crisis — the president’s biggest worry was if the Feds would pull “shenanigans” against his family and friends. The video is a key piece of evidence in the probe into whether Mr. Bolsonaro illegally interfered with the Federal Police — that is, changing its leadership in order to tamper with investigations. 

While many argue that most of the evidence so far discovered is only circumstantial, the abundance of said evidence makes the president’s defense a tough sell. And yet, Mr. Bolsonaro might very well escape from all this unscathed, at least from a legal perspective.

The reason is Prosecutor General Augusto Aras.

In matters of common crimes allegedly committed by the president, it is up to the prosecutor general to preside over a probe — and decide on whether to present charges. If he does, then the House will vote on the president’s indictment, which would automatically suspend him from office for six months. The vice president would take over, and the head of state can only resume his functions if found not guilty.

Based on Mr. Aras track record as Brazil’s top prosecutor, there is little room to imagine him recommending the indictment of the man who, just eight months ago, picked him for the job. 

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