How to interpret Jair Bolsonaro’s rise among women voters

The latest Ibope presidential poll was something of an Ice Bucket Challenge on Workers’ Party politicians and voters. Despite the avalanche of criticism, Jair Bolsonaro has increased his support beyond the margin of error, reaching 31 percent of voting intentions – and widening the gap between him and second-place Fernando Haddad to 10 points.

In this article, I will attempt to interpret the numbers – without the partisanship and wishful thinking that have become the norm in political commentary in Brazil.

The first possibility is that anti-Workers’ Party voters have rallied around the former Army captain, who has – better than anyone – epitomized anti-Lulism, which is, alongside anti-Bolsonarism, the biggest political wave in the country. No other candidate to the right of the center has shown more strength for a future head-to-head contest with Lula’s party. His radicalism has worked as an asset rather than a liability.

In that sense, center-right Geraldo Alckmin was Mr. Bolsonaro’s best unintentional ally. In...