Are we about to see the beta version of Lula 3.0?

Seven months into his third term as Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is about to enter the second phase of his administration. It could either pave the way for a revival of his glory years and the creation of a broad alliance to defend democracy, or it could scar his administration and threaten to revive corruption scandals.

It was clear that Lula expected to rebuild the relationship with Congress from what he perceived as an imbalance that former President Jair Bolsonaro accepted in order to survive an avalanche of political reprisals for his, to put it moderately, inhumane approach to the Covid pandemic. 

The left-wing leader’s diagnosis was that the pendulum of power had shifted to the lawmakers, with the president as a glorified King of England-type figure who had to dispense the money that the legislators divided among themselves for their constituencies, in the hope that some legislation of interest to the administration would pass. 

And this scenario would not fly, as the political zeitgeist has moved the legislature sharply to the right while the president comes from the center-left. 

Lula received a gift from the Supreme Court last year, after he won the election, when justices ruled the unconstitutionality of the so-called “secret budget.” This was an opaque system of budgetary grants that House Speaker Arthur Lira used to increase his influence among his peers, by making him the ultimate distributor of pork. 

This arrangement became the first equalizer in the power struggle between the executive and legislative branches. However, Lula’s perceived influence over the justices led Mr. Lira’s camp to blame the...