Why Brazil should pay attention to the next Chinese Communist Party congress

October is going to be a particularly sensitive month for relations between Brazil and China. First, on October 2, Brazilian voters will head to the polls in a highly polarized presidential election. Then, later in the month, Beijing will host the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

Since 2019, bilateral relations between Brazil and China have been in an odd place. 

On the one hand, investments and trade have soared. For instance, a recent report by the China-Brazil Business Council found that 2021 saw a massive comeback from Chinese investments in Brazil. And yet, Brasília and Beijing have been politically estranged. 

A gulf between the two countries grew during the pandemic, as Brazilian officials blamed China for the spread of the coronavirus, and the Jair Bolsonaro administration first refused — and then unwillingly accepted — to acquire vaccines made with Chinese technology. Is the scenario going to change after October?

The National Congress of the CCP is the most important event in Chinese politics, akin to the presidential elections in liberal democratic states such as Brazil or the U.S. 

It is at the National Congress that top positions in the CCP are confirmed, notably in the Politburo. Changes in the CCP leadership tend to later reflect in the Executive branch of the Chinese government. 

The National Congress appoints the Secretary-General of the CCP. Usually, this person is also chosen to be China’s President by the National People’s Congress (the highest political organ of the Chinese regime), similar to what happens with Politburo members.

This year it is widely expected that the 20th National Congress will keep Xi Jinping in power for a third term. There are other contenders, but so far surprises seem unlikely. Age limits tend to be enforced, and although a younger generation of politicians may rise within the CCP, it will probably still be under Mr. Xi’s guidance.

However, the National Congress...