Why Marina Silva will (probably) not win Brazil’s presidential election

On June 10, Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, took to Twitter and showed disbelief about how dismissively political analysts have treated environmentalist presidential candidate Marina Silva, despite her solid poll results. “Is it group-think? Sexism? Her last-minute 2014 collapse?,” asked Mr. Winter.

I don’t know any Brazilian political analysts who think Marina can win in October. But she keeps polling well and would easily beat Bolsonaro & Alckmin in 2nd round. So why not take her seriously? Is it group-think? Sexism? Her last-minute 2014 collapse? pic.twitter.com/kXEFqxReS5

— Brian Winter (@BrazilBrian) June 10, 2018

As a Marina Silva doubter myself, I humbly take upon the task of trying to answer his question.

If you look at the polls as if they were a still photograph, then yes, Ms. Silva could be considered the contender to beat far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro come the October presidential election (assuming that former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is in jail, will not be able to run). But look at them instead as a moving image, and the picture becomes much bleaker for her – showing a decaying candidacy.

In April 2016, Ms. Silva was polling between 17 and 24 percent in scenarios that included Lula. Now, in scenarios where the former president is on the ballot, she is stuck with 10 percent. Until June 2017, Ms. Silva appeared on polls beating Lula in a potential runoff election – and comfortably so. Flash forward to June 2018, and she has lost 21 points, and would lose against the incarcerated politician in a head-to-head contest.