Brazil’s agribusiness output has fallen, though trade balance remains positive

Welcome to “Number of the Week,” where we choose a single figure that helps understand what is going on in Brazil. This week, we show that even though agribusiness could not save Brazil from entering a technical recession, the sector has managed to sustain a trade surplus in 2021.

USD 96.6bn

Brazil's 2021 agricultural trade surplus

Droughts have been strongly affecting Brazilian agribusiness, which, in turn, deeply impacts the wider economy. This was in evidence last week, with the release of Brazil’s GDP figures for the third quarter, which showed the country to be in technical recession. In Q3 2021, the economy suffered a 0.1-percent contraction, as agribusiness output fell 8 percent following climate-related disruptions. 

Even so, it has been an extremely positive year for Brazilian agricultural commodity prices, especially for soybean, driven by the devalued Brazilian Real against the U.S. Dollar. This generated a national agricultural trade surplus of USD 6.9 billion in November, which stands in strong contrast with the country’s overall trade balance, taking in products from all sectors of the economy, which saw a USD 1.3 billion...