Massa and Milei qualify for runoff in Argentina

Sergio Massa surprised most pollsters, finishing the first round in Argentina ahead. Photo: Petra Piedra/Shutterstock

Sergio Massa, Argentina’s economy minister, and Javier Milei, a far-right libertarian economist, have qualified for the November 19 presidential runoff in Argentina.

With 83 percent of ballots counted, Mr. Massa had won over 36 percent of the votes, while Mr. Milei stood at 30.3 percent. Patricia Bullrich, a right-wing former security minister, sunk to third with only 23 percent.

While a Massa-Milei runoff was always seen as the most likely scenario, election day started with analysts speculating about whether Mr. Milei could have enough momentum to reach a first-round landslide win, after taking a surprise first place in the August 13 primaries. He would have needed to reach at least 40 percent of the votes on Sunday, with a 10 percent lead over the next candidate.

Ultimately, however, Peronism managed a surprising show of strength — despite struggling with ballooning inflation that has now reached almost 140 percent and an ideological right-wing turn in Argentina.

Most pollsters had Mr. Milei finishing first. One exception was Atlas Intel, a pollster that also was most accurate in the Brazilian 2022 election. Atlas Intel’s chief executive Andrei Roman celebrated their accurate prognosis on X (formerly Twitter), although it is important to note that on July 22 he proclaimed that Ms. Bullrich would be the next president of Argentina.

Mr. Roman said Ms. Bullrich’s chances were nixed by a lackluster campaign among young voters and leaked audio recordings allegedly revealing inappropriate comments and behavior by Carlos Melconian, her pick for economy minister.

Supporters of Mr. Milei were left in disbelief as the votes were counted, saying the ballots were rigged to benefit the Peronist candidate.

Messrs. Massa and Milei will meet again on November 19, when the second round is held. They will have to fight for the spoils of Ms. Bullrich. That could be a tall order for center-left Peronism.

Mr. Massa’s strategy emphasized broadly held values such as public education and healthcare in contrast to an electoral menu that was dominated by increasingly extreme right-wing ideas — while also blaming the current macroeconomic chaos on former President Mauricio Macri and taking distance from incumbent President Alberto Fernández.

Mr. Milei, on the other hand, promises the return of economic prosperity by abandoning the Argentinian peso and adopting the U.S. dollar as the country’s national currency — which experts say is simply not doable in Argentina’s current context.