Despite health crisis, Bolsonaro still leads polls

According to a new poll by Ideia Big Data, President Jair Bolsonaro would win re-election if the 2022 presidential vote was held today. 

The government’s poor handling of the health crisis in the Amazon has damaged Mr. Bolsonaro’s image, but not to the extent that would deprive him of a second term.

While 50.3 percent of voters say the president does not deserve to win re-election, he is polling higher than any of his potential challengers. At this stage, the only figure who would get within 3 points of Mr. Bolsonaro in a runoff would be TV presenter Luciano Huck — who reportedly plans on giving up his political aspirations if he lands a Sunday daytime show on Brazil’s leading TV network.

The presidential election is one and a half years away, meaning that any polls should be taken with a grain of salt. But the numbers from Ideia Big Data — which has run weekly surveys since Mr. Bolsonaro’s inauguration — shows the president’s popularity is extremely resilient among his original supporters, who remain by his side despite a sluggish economy and a massive sanitary crisis.

Still, the numbers raise some red flags. “Despite remaining stable overall, Mr. Bolsonaro’s approval rating has been on a downward trend in traditional support bases, such as the North region and low-income and poorly-educated voters.,” says Mauricio Moura, CEO of Ideia Big Data.

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