GDP growth projections stable at around -5 percent

The Brazilian Central Bank has released its latest Focus Report — a weekly survey of top-rated investment firms concerning their outlook for the Brazilian economy. The median GDP growth rate for the year now sits at -5.03 percent, the first time in five weeks analysts have lowered their expectations for the country’s economy.

However, this week’s results confirm a continuing consensus that the GDP skid this year will hover around 5 percent, a much lower fall than initially expected. Back in July, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted the Brazilian economy would shrink by at least 7 percent — a contraction that could reach 9 percent in the case of a second wave of Covid-19 infections.

Brazil’s premature reopening — barely any restriction measures are still observed — has helped boost the economy, though record-high unemployment rates remain a source of concern. The government hopes to figure out a way to roll out a new welfare plan for 2021, when the coronavirus emergency salary ends, without sparking a confidence crisis due to ballooning debt.

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