As our June 10 Daily Briefing explained, Brazil’s biggest urban centers are starting to reopen their economies — before ever truly stopping. But research from consulting firm Bain & Company shows that at least seven Brazilian states face a great risk of needing a full-scale lockdown in the near future. States in the North and Northeast regions of the country — where Covid-19 is spreading at a faster rate —are among the most vulnerable to the pandemic and in need of lockdown measures.
The study crosses data of states’ intensive care facility capacity with the current usage rate and the spread of the virus to compile the list of states that are in most need of strict social isolation measures. Factors such as high urban density, low socioeconomic figures, and high reliance on public transportation increase the risks. Densely populated cities such as Fortaleza, Belém, and Rio de Janeiro are among the ones which would more urgently need lockdowns.
But according to Matthew Richmond, a research fellow at the London School of Economics, it would be nearly impossible for authorities to impose strict isolation measures at this moment. “Law enforcement wouldn’t have enough structure to enforce them without a major public buy-in. But deteriorating economic conditions and a decrease of popular support for isolation make that a long shot,” he told The Brazilian Report.
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