⚠️ UPDATE: 78,162 infections, 5,466 deaths

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The latest update of the Health Ministry’s Covid-19 figures sees the country record another 449 deaths in the space of 24 hours. The coronavirus death toll now stands at 5,466, with over 78,162 infections.

“Over 5,000 coronavirus deaths” this week, says study

A study from the Imperial College of London has concluded that Brazil has the highest rate of Covid-19 contagion among 48 countries, predicting an increase of reported deaths of over 5,000 this week alone.

The researchers analyzed the reporting of Covid-19 deaths and cases in multiple countries around the world to draw up short-term forecasts on virus reproduction and expected fatalities. According to their estimates, Brazil is among the nine countries where the Covid-19 epidemic is likely to be increasing, along with Canada, India, Ireland, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, and Russia.

In their calculations of the estimated transmission levels of the coronavirus, Brazil ranked higher than any other country, with an R_tvalue of 2.81, meaning that each infected person is expected to pass the virus on to 2.81 other individuals. As a comparison, the R_tvalue assigned to the U.S. was just 0.98.

Underreporting

There is a consensus among experts and government officials that Brazil’s Covid-19 figures are underestimating the full extent of the country’s epidemic. A low rate of testing, delays in diagnoses, and the difficulty of collating nationwide data indicate that the actual number of cases and deaths in the country is much higher than the official figures released by the Health Ministry.

The Imperial College of London study analyzed the deaths reported over the last two weeks and the reported cases in the prior 10-day period in order to provide a measurement on just how badly under-reported Covid-19 numbers are around the world. Brazil showed an estimated reporting of just 10.4 percent, suggesting that the actual number of cases in the country could be closer to 1 million than 100,000.

Euan Marshall

Originally from Scotland, Euan Marshall traded Glasgow for São Paulo in 2011. Specializing in Brazilian soccer, politics, and the connection between the two, he authored a comprehensive history of Brazilian soccer entitled “A to Zico: An Alphabet of Brazilian Football.”