Brazilian scientists launch real-time Covid-19 monitoring; cases could reach 2,300 within four days

A group of Brazilian scientists has launched the Covid-19 BR Observatory, which follows the spread of the novel coronavirus in real-time. Besides presenting data on the number of cases, the website also brings projections of the expected pace of the epidemic’s progression in Brazil.

The platform’s latest forecasts suggest that infections could reach up to 2,300 people by March 23, in the most pessimistic scenario. “It is a super important initiative, and it could serve as a reality check for people who have yet to believe in the severity of the looming crisis,” said Maurício Nogueira, of the São José do Rio Preto Medical School, to newspaper Folha de S. Paulo.

The Brazilian Virology Society praised the initiative, but asked for caution when analyzing the data. “We have seen drastic changes in the profile of this pandemic since the Italian crisis. It will be interesting to evaluate the precision of such forecasts,” said chairman Fernando Spilki.

According to the Covid-19 BR Observatory, transmission rates in Brazil are at 3.2 people for every infected patient—similar to what we have seen in other countries. According to recent estimates, it takes two and a half days for the number of infections to double in Brazil.

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