Battle for control over Brazil’s Senate a Lula-Bolsonaro proxy war

The Senate's ballot box. Photo: Edilson Rodrigues/SF

In a few moments, recently sworn-in Brazilian senators will vote on the new Senate president for the next two years. Incumbent Rodrigo Pacheco, endorsed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will face newcomer Rogério Marinho, backed by Lula’s utmost rival, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Officially, Mr. Pacheco has the support of party benches comprising 40 senators, just one member shy of the 41-vote majority necessary to win. However, senators vote by secret ballot, meaning party allegiances are no guarantee of how a senator will vote.

Publicly, only 37 senators have pledged to vote for Mr. Pacheco.

Mr. Marinho, who served as regional development minister under Jair Bolsonaro, has the public support of 30 senators. He is counting on defections from the Pacheco camp.

Both candidates are heavily involved in the “secret budget,” the opaque system of parliamentary grants designed by the Bolsonaro administration that gave lawmakers unprecedented power over the federal budget in exchange for political support. Mr. Pacheco was one of the leaders of the secret budget’s disbursements, while Mr. Marinho headed the office from where most of the funds originated.

Mr. Pacheco helped the Bolsonaro administration by refusing to set up a select committee on the government’s mishandling of the Covid pandemic. He was later forced to do so by a Supreme Court order. In 2022, Mr. Pacheco delayed and ultimately killed a select committee to investigate corruption in the Education Ministry.

Despite his list of services to the Bolsonaro government, the Lula administration chose to support Mr. Pacheco, who is not a hardcore Bolsonaro supporter. By contrast, Mr. Marinho is heavily backed by Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party and his other former cabinet ministers who were elected senators.

A victory for Mr. Marinho would be a major blow to the Lula administration, whose agenda can only be implemented through several constitutional amendments. These, however, require a 60 percent majority in two rounds of voting in each congressional chamber. With an opponent at the helm of the Senate, any reform will be an uphill battle.

Mr. Marinho is also expected to put issues dear to the pro-Bolsonaro camp in the Senate’s agenda, such as the “judicial activism” of members of the Supreme Court, seen as an obstacle to the far-right.

“A victory for Rogério Marinho would mean the end of the Lula administration — at least the one that took office on January 1,” says Mario Sérgio Lima, senior Brazil analyst at Medley Global Advisors and a columnist for The Brazilian Report.

“With an active opponent leading the Senate, reforms become near impossible for the next two years. If four years of Bolsonarism have taught us anything, it is that it never pivots toward moderation,” he adds.

“Moreover, a Lula loss in the Senate will embolden House Speaker Arthur Lira in his relationship with the government. The government would face two choices, neither appealing: catering to the rent-seeking impulses of the Big Center or becoming a lame-duck government for two years.”

The importance of the dispute for the Senate presidency is such that Alexandre Padilha, the president’s liaison with Congress, is on the upper house floor negotiating support for Mr. Pacheco’s candidacy.

Unlike members of the House, who use electronic panels and vote quickly, senators go through a long and very formal voting process in which they are called to the floor one state at a time. They vote on paper ballots that are later publicly counted.