Polls show positive trend for Bolsonaro

Pollster MDA released its latest presidential election survey on Monday, with results that give both frontrunners reasons to be cheerful. The National Transport Confederation (CNT) commissioned the poll.

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva still holds a massive lead over all competitors, polling at 42 percent. Lula’s numbers have remained stable throughout MDA’s past three surveys. In spontaneous polls — when voters are asked for their pick for president without being shown a list of candidates — Lula commands one-third of the vote, suggesting he has a large and consolidated backing. 

But today’s poll brought silver linings for President Jair Bolsonaro, who will be the first incumbent Brazilian president to run for re-election as an underdog. Mr. Bolsonaro’s support has gone up both in spontaneous polls (from 20 to 24 percent since December) and in stimulated polls (from 25 to 28 percent), where respondents are asked to select a candidate from a list.

The president’s approval ratings are often tied to the country’s economic situation, and the government’s recently-launched cash transfer policy could boost voters’ purchasing power and improve Mr. Bolsonaro’s chances. Moreover, the closer the election gets, the more likely anti-Lula voters are to flock towards whoever they see as having the best chance of defeating him.

The MDA/CNT poll corroborates a trend which showed up in other recent surveys, suggesting  that Lula’s lead has begun to shrink. We had anticipated that trend in our annual report for 2022 — which you can purchase here.

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