GDP predictor suggests Brazil is on the brink of recession

The Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), seen as a reliable predictor of official GDP figures, fell 0.27 percent in September. This was the second consecutive month of decreasing results. In August, the decline initially announced by the Central Bank was 0.15 percent, which dropped further to -0.29 percent after review.

Compared to September 2020, the index rose 1.52 percent. Year-to-date, the GDP preview registered a bump of 5.88 percent. Growth was 4.22 percent in the 12-month period. The drop seen for September was considered to be within expectations for market analysts.

The Central Bank also indicated that the economy retreated 0.14 percent in Q3 of this year compared to Q3 2020. As growth retreated 0.1 percent in Q2, the monetary authority suggests Brazil is about to enter a technical recession.

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