Colombian coal rides China’s economic rebound

When Colombia announced in late 2020 that their floundering coal industry would be saved by boosted exports to China, it seemed a remote chance, at best. However, coal sales increased by 124 percent in 2021, according to Analdex, the Colombian foreign trade association. So, is China really a promising market for Colombian coal? At present, the picture is unclear.

China generated 53 percent of the world’s coal-based power last year, up from pre-pandemic levels of 50 percent in 2019, according to data from Ember Climate’s Global Electricity Review. (Though this was a small decrease on the 54 percent seen in 2020.)

China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows that domestic production increased by 4.6 percent in 2021 while imports also rose to meet increased demand. China brought in 3.41 million tons of Colombian coal last year, up from 1.52 million in 2020, data from the Colombian System for Mining Information (SIMCO) shows.

However, analysts are not convinced this trend will continue into the longer term and warn that China’s commitments to reduce carbon emissions could work against Colombian exporters. “Medium- and long-term expectations continue to decline,” Nicolás Rincón, director of economic affairs at Analdex, told Diálogo Chino. 

“China has made announcements, and now with COP26 [the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference], the decarbonization policies for economic activities are more rigorous and committed at a global level.”

China’s quick recovery from its 2020 economic slump is one of the main reasons for the spike in consumption. Recently published figures from the National Bureau of Statistics put the country’s GDP growth at 8.1 percent for 2021. Coal accounted for 56 percent of total energy generation, and 5.24 billion tons of standard coal equivalent was consumed, up 5.2 percent from 2020. 

Pledges and market outlook

At the UN General Assembly in September 2021, the first anniversary of China’s 2060 carbon neutrality pledge, President Xi Jinping declared that the country would halt public financing for plants abroad. The country went a step further with a revised climate plan launched ahead of COP26, setting a goal to peak carbon emissions before 2030. However, China refused to sign a declaration showing a commitment to the phasing out of coal use that came from the Glasgow summit.

There are other factors that make coal less attractive. Ilaria Mazzocco, a fellow in Chinese business and economics at the nonprofit research Center for Strategic and International Studies, argues that coal consumption in China, and the world in general, will ultimately dip because of economic,...