Market Roundup: What to expect from Brazil in 2024

Illustration: André Chiavassa/TBR

What to expect from the Brazilian economy in 2024

Gross domestic product grew faster in 2023 than investors thought a year ago. The economy is expected to have grown by about 3 percent this year, even if it posts negative results in Q4 (official figures for the full year will be released in March). The economy is expected to slow in 2024.

By the numbers. The Central Bank’s latest Focus report, a weekly survey of top investment firms, shows that analysts expect inflation to be lower in 2024, at 3.9 percent, but still above target.

They also see Brazil’s benchmark interest rate at 9 percent by the end of this year and its GDP growing by only 1.54 percent — a somewhat more optimistic view than that of the IMF, which expects Brazil’s economic activity to expand by 1.5 percent.

State of play. A slower pace of growth is not necessarily bad news, as it is consistent with an expected global slowdown. Among the factors lowering Brazil’s growth forecast are a less vigorous agricultural sector and poor fiscal conditions.

Recent data from the Central Bank showed that the public sector (federal, state, municipal governments, and state-owned companies) posted a primary deficit of BRL 37.3 billion (USD 7.65 billion) in November, up 85.5 percent from a year earlier.
In the 12 months to November, Brazil’s primary deficit reached BRL 131.4 billion, or 1.22 percent...

Fabiane Ziolla Menezes

Former editor-in-chief of LABS (Latin America Business Stories), Fabiane has more than 15 years of experience reporting on business, finance, innovation, and cities in Brazil. The latter recently took her back to the classroom and made her a Master in Urban Management from PUCPR. At TBR, she keeps an eye on economic policy, game-changing businesses, and people driving innovation in Latin America.