Brazil is reopening its economy. Tell that to consumers

“While we don’t show society that we have controlled the disease and have a way out from it, any attempt of a way out will be bad, because fear will prevent you from treating the economy as a priority.” 

The warning, made by former Health Minister Nelson Teich in a videotaped April 22 cabinet meeting, turned out to be prescient. As seven Brazilian states begin lifting quarantine rules, consumption remains below average in all of them. In some, such as Southeast state Espírito Santo, demand will be less than 40 percent of pre-pandemic figures, according to industry leaders. 

A report by newspaper Folha de S.Paulo quotes business owners who are hopeful with the reopening. But the local association of retailers, FecomercioSP, expects sales to plunge 33 percent in June to just BRL 19 billion (USD 3.7 billion), as the opening will happen gradually amid a hostile economic environment. As we reported on our Covid-19 Live Blog, the association believes that São Paulo’s retail is about to face its worst year on record, with a 20-percent drop.

Maurício Moura, a professor at George Washington University and chief executive officer at pollster Ideia Big Data, believes that consumers simply don’t trust the economy enough to spend their money.

“It will be hard to retrieve the trust of consumers, it is a long process that will depend on the spread [of the virus]. And at least two-thirds...