Is crime in São Paulo really getting worse?

São Paulo has recorded a robbery every five minutes so far in 2023, and a case of theft every two and a half. Unsurprisingly, a feeling of insecurity is widespread in the country’s biggest city.

“It’s a feeling that is transmitted around the community,” says Guaracy Mingardi, criminal analyst and member of the Brazilian Forum on Public Safety. “You don’t have to be robbed to feel a lack of security, you hear about other people being robbed, maybe you see other people being robbed, then you don’t feel safe.”

Oddly, the shared sensation that the city is becoming more dangerous is not exactly backed up by the data. Discounting the pandemic lull in crime figures across the board, murders are down in comparison to the pre-Covid period, as are armed robberies resulting in death. Reports of robberies as a whole are largely stable, and the only notable increase has come in non-violent theft.

“Everything was stabilized during the pandemic. People barely left their homes so the chance of anyone being robbed was very small. Now, people are having to go to work again, to study, and these crimes have returned,” Mr. Mingardi tells The Brazilian Report.

Brazil separates crimes of stealing under the two main umbrellas of robbery and theft. The former involves force or the threat of force, while theft is a less confrontational offense, including acts such as pickpocketing. 

“Theft is by far the most common crime. It leaves victims upset and annoyed, but you could say...