Could Brazil really win the World Cup?

Just days before the 2022 World Cup kicks off in Qatar, bookmakers have Brazil 4-to-1 favorites to win the tournament. However, within the country, you’d never guess that the five-time world champions were potentially on the cusp of a historic sixth World Cup trophy — at least, not yet.

When it comes to the World Cup in Brazil, the lead-up to the tournament is one of uncertainty, caution, and often pessimism. The hesitation to underline their own favoritism for the cup in some cases appears to be out of fear of “jinxing” the national team — Brazil have gone into the World Cup as favorites several times before, and very rarely have they turned that perceived dominance into success.

This caution will change as the tournament gets underway, particularly once Brazil kicks off its Group G campaign against Serbia on Thursday afternoon, in Lusail. As World Cup fever sweeps over Brazil and its population, dormant confidence and pride emerge. 

The average football fan switches from skeptic to devout believer and any suggestion that Brazil might not charge to World Cup glory is quickly shot down.

Local (dis)belief aside, Brazil has a genuine chance of victory in this year’s World Cup. Since losing the final of the Copa America in July 2021, the Brazilian national team has gone unbeaten for 15 games, conceding just five goals in the process and scoring 38. While World Cup matches are a different beast entirely from qualifiers or friendlies, pre-tournament form is important for chances of tournament success.

As The Athletic pointed out in September, of the five World Cup winners so far in the 21st century, four were unbeaten in all five of their matches leading up to the tournament. The only outlier to this trend was France in 2018, who lost just one of their five pre-World Cup games and went on to win the competition.

In fact, no side in the last 20 years has qualified for the World Cup...