Society

Brazil’s falling murder rate: too good to be true?

According to a recent study, Brazil's murder rate dropped by more than one-fifth in 2019, but statistical inconsistencies cast a shadow over seemingly positive results

violence In three states in the country's North and Northeast, murder rates are comparable to those in the world's most dangerous nations. Photo: Joa Souza
In three states in the country’s North and Northeast, murder rates are comparable to those in the world’s most dangerous nations. Photo: Joa Souza

In 2017, amid an explosion of gang-related turf wars, Brazil recorded a shocking 31.6 murders for every 100,000 people. In three states in the country’s North and Northeast, this rate topped 60 — comparable to figures in the world’s most dangerous nations. Since then, however, the total number of murders in Brazil has fallen significantly. The 12-percent drop in 2018 was the biggest decrease in a decade, and latest figures from the Brazilian Public Security Forum and Institute of Applied Economic Research’s Violence Atlas study suggest an even steeper decline in 2019.

Using data from the Health Ministry’s Mortality Information System (SIM), the study showed a total of 45,503 murders in Brazil in 2019. The corresponding homicide rate of 21.7 per 100,000 people goes down as the lowest result since 1995.

The northeastern state of Ceará recorded just 2,417 murders in 2019, 50.7 percent less than the previous year. In 2017, the same state had posted homicide rates of 60.2 per 100,000 people — one of the highest in the country at the time.

Do the figures tell the full story?

However, despite what appears to be...

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