Government boasts improving crime numbers, but how much credit does it deserve?

Homicides down 21.2 percent. Rape cases, 13.6 percent. Vehicle theft, 27.5 percent. These are just some of the latest numbers from Brazil’s National Public Security Information System (Sinesp), which shows falling figures in nine types of crime across the first four months of 2019. While results are contested, they come as a much-needed image boost for the current administration.

In comparison to January–April 2018, Sinesp data shows falls of over one-fifth in homicides, 8.6 percent in attempted murders, and 5.3 percent in serious bodily injuries resulting in death. Instances of other violent crime have also dropped, as we see below:

The news will come as some relief to the Jair Bolsonaro administration, which has projected itself as tough on crime, but has as of yet been unable to point to many successful results in this first year in office.

Questioning the numbers

The numbers come from Sinesp, an information system created in 2012 by the Dilma Rousseff government. State security departments submit data on the police reports filed under their jurisdiction, and the Sinesp system tabulates these results.

While the Ministry of Justice calls the system “official and trustworthy,” other public security researchers disagree.

One of the main...