Report_2022 elections: the stakes and the risks

August 22. Check a sneak preview here! For the first time since the end of the military dictatorship, Brazilians fear for the state of their country’s democracy. Over a third of the electorate believes President Jair Bolsonaro will try to stage a coup — and he has, for years, suggested that he will not accept unfavorable electoral results. The Brazilian 2022 election campaign has officially started, and comments on this year’s elections being “a defining moment” for the country seem justified.

This 30-page report brings concise analysis on the important topics to monitor over the next couple of months.

The rise of political violence: In a scenario of unprecedented political polarization, Brazilians are arming themselves more than ever, while President Bolsonaro tries to sow distrust in Brazil’s voting system.

Lula v. Bolsonaro: Only two candidates have realistic chances of winning this presidential election: former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. 

• We break down what the electorate wants, the economic conditions in the lead-up to the election, the polling, and the two men’s strategies.

Risks to democracy: We spoke with members of the far-right to anticipate what to expect from the September 7 anti-democratic rallies being encouraged by Jair Bolsonaro.

• We also mapped what key stakeholders say when it comes to the security of the voting system and where they would stand should Mr. Bolsonaro cross the proverbial Rubicon.

Congressional races: House races are often overlooked but with Congress currently at its most powerful, these elections will be key to Brazil’s political future. 

The Senate: One-third of the upper house will be renewed. We look at some of the key races.

Governors: Who will run Brazil’s 27 states between 2023 and 2026?