Justice Ministry transition creates wedge in Lula’s coalition

When the current Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva administration began in January 2023, the center-left Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) took a large share of key positions in the presidential cabinet after sharing the ticket with the ruling Workers’ Party. 

Vice President Geraldo Alckmin was appointed to the Industry and Trade Ministry. Senator-elect Flávio Dino was named justice minister. Former São Paulo Governor Márcio França went to the Ports and Airports Ministry. 

But one year later, things have changed. 

In September, Lula announced his first major cabinet reshuffle, aimed at turning the congressional group known as the “Big Center” into a reliable ally. The Big Center is a loose federation of center-right parties that support a pro-business agenda but are ideologically fluid and ready to back any government if given the right incentives, such as budgetary earmarks and strategic posts in an administration.

As part of the reshuffle, Congressman Silvio Costa Filho of the Republicans party — a right-wing group led by evangelical Protestant preachers — replaced Mr. França as ports and airports minister. 

As a consolation prize, Mr. França was given a job in the newly created Small Businesses Ministry. The creation of that department, however, only became law this week.

In addition, in late 2023, Lula appointed Mr. Dino to the Supreme Court and chose a former judge with no formal political affiliation to replace him in the Justice Ministry.

These developments led to speculation in the press that PSB lawmakers might reassess their closeness to the government. Data shows that in 2023, PSB House members voted with the government 94 percent of the time, one of the administration’s top allies.

The PSB caucus is relatively small,...