Presidential opinion polls: the story so far

Opinion polls have dominated the headlines during the 2022 general election season like never before. In the lead-up to the first round of voting, the massive attention placed on pollsters’ surveys was primarily due to a lack of important developments in the campaign itself.

In the presidential race, both incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and frontrunner and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spent their time criticizing one another as opposed to making electoral promises.

Moving into the runoff campaign, the attention on opinion polls came for different reasons. Leading institutes Datafolha and Ipec both massively underrated President Bolsonaro’s support in the first-round vote. While their estimations of...