Brazil mimics the U.S.’s urban-left v. rural-right polarization

Brazil’s 2022 elections, in many ways, reflect how politics in the country seems to echo patterns that have taken shape in the U.S.

A right-wing party won in rural states and made advances in smaller cities, while the left won in large urban areas. Several winners on the right are evangelical leaders or affiliated in some way with the churches, while prominent academics, scientists, and economists support the country’s main left-wing party.

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s first-round scores were much higher than that achieved by Fernando Haddad, his replacement in the 2018 election. Lula’s largest gains were in the biggest cities: he gained 25 percentage points in relation to Mr. Haddad in cities with over 500,000 people, and only 13 points in cities with less than 50,000 people.

Among Brazil’s five regions, Lula gained the most in the Southeast – Brazil’s wealthiest and most populous. And although he lost overall in the state of São Paulo, Lula defeated Mr. Bolsonaro 47-37 in the state capital, the largest city in South America. 

In Rio de Janeiro, the president’s home turf, Mr. Bolsonaro suffered losses relative to 2018 in absolute terms. He won 235,000 fewer votes this time around – although this was still enough to beat Lula 47-43.

Conversely, most of Mr. Bolsonaro’s gains this year took place in the Northeast, a traditional Workers Party stronghold. The president won over 49 million votes in 2018, obtaining 51 million this year. Roughly 80 percent of his voting gains, in absolute numbers, came from the Northeast region – and his biggest strides were in smaller cities.

In 2018, Mr. Bolsonaro finished first in five out of the region’s nine...