Brazil’s gubernatorial races show the power of incumbency bias

Brazil’s last general election, in 2018, wasn’t great for incumbent governors seeking re-election. Four years ago, only half of the 20 candidates seeking another term succeeded. This year, in contrast, the country’s strong incumbency bias prevailed: 19 of the 27 sitting governors were up for re-election, and 12 were successful in the first round on Sunday — a record number in the country.

A further five have made it to the runoff, which will be held on October 30. It would only take two of them winning to top the previous record re-election success rate of around 70 percent, seen in 2010.

As The Brazilian Report explained last month, incumbency bias is strong in Brazil, suggesting that sitting governors’ performance in 2018 was an anomaly and that this year’s election results follow an established trend.

Indeed, João Villaverde, a professor of public administration at the Getulio Vargas Foundation and a consultant at Medley Global Advisors, says that Brazilians have a tendency to re-elect people already in power, even in times of political and economic crisis. The 2020 municipal elections had already seen a bump in successful re-election bids.

“On that occasion, people said a very strong ‘no’ to new politics, to what was different. And they opted for candidates who were either already well-known or already in office, to avoid further turmoil,” Mr. Villaverde tells The Brazilian Report.

“And Brazilian society was so stressed in the face of the pandemic, that when the time came to vote [in 2022], people wanted stability, something which the politician in power gives at least in part,” he adds.

This desire for continuity was evident, for example, in the re-election on Sunday of Helder Barbalho, governor of...