‘Sleeper bombs’ lie in Congress for Brazil’s post-electoral period

Brazilians will head to the polls on Sunday to vote for president, Congress, state legislatures and governors. While the presidential race has been exceptionally stable polls-wise, the post-electoral period remains filled with risks. 

Part of the problem lies in the 63 days between October 30, when runoff races will take place, and January 1, when new governments — federal and state — will be inaugurated. If former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva clinches a first-round win, as polls show he could, that transition period will last 91 days. 

In most democracies, the transition between outgoing and incoming leaders tends to be quick. In France, Emmanuel Macron took office just seven days after being elected to his first term in 2017. But in Brazil, like in the U.S., over two months separate both ends of the electoral process.

If the results go the polls’ way and President Jair Bolsonaro is denied a second term, his presidency will enter the so-called lame-duck period. The term, borrowed from the stock market, describes an outgoing leader as a weakling, a bird that can’t keep up with the flock. 

Lame ducks in politics, however, can be quite powerful — especially a lame-duck Congress.

Between the election and January 1, inauguration day, Congress might take the opportunity to vote on some “sleeper bomb” proposals. They lie dormant in drawers and committees, ready to blow up before the next president has any power to veto them. Additionally, a lack of public oversight can make lawmakers less accountable (there will be the added factor of a World Cup diverting people’s attention in November and December).

According to Magna Inacio, a political science professor at the Federal University of Minas Gerais, lawmakers acquire even more political protagonism in the lame-duck periods, while the president loses their capacity to react to the legislative agenda. 

With Mr. Bolsonaro, we are in any case dealing with a president who has already waived part of his powers to congressional leaders throughout his term.

In the case of a Lula victory, President Bolsonaro himself could pressure allies for the advancement of certain proposals. 

“The transition process is unlikely to happen smoothly,” says Ms. Inacio. “We don’t expect Mr. Bolsonaro to make the president-elect’s life any easier.”

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