In a bid to understand what defines the winner of an election, in 1957 economist Anthony Downs turned to the “median voter theorem.” In general terms, it purports that the candidate who attracts voters who lean neither to the right nor left is the most likely to win — because the left/right camps already have a captive pool of sympathizers. That is to say, the successful candidate must convince voters who have yet to form a preference.
While finding fertile ground in Brazil for many years, the theory applies less and less to the country. From the return to democracy...
