Bolsonaro no longer the belle of ball for 2022 race

Re-election is a recent feature in Brazilian political history, with incumbent heads of executive branches only being allowed to run for second consecutive terms since 1998. But since it became legal, every single president who has stood for re-election has been victorious.

The sample size is small but offers a few explanations, nevertheless. Since democratization in the 1980s, Brazil has seen huge levels of economic and human development, as well as improved institutional maturity, which had massive impacts on people’s lives. And presidents reaped the electoral benefits of that improvement. But after the worst decade on record in growth terms, the path to four more years has become rockier.

In 1998, Fernando Henrique Cardoso bagged his re-election in the first round. Eight years later, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won his runoff by a landslide — with his challenger getting fewer votes in the second round as opposed to the first. But the two past economic crises (the 2014-2016 crisis and the pandemic) were the worst in Brazil’s history, and have taken their toll on the sitting presidents.

Dilma Rousseff won re-election in 2014 by a hair’s breadth but saw her approval ratings take a nosedive soon after. Her lack of popularity and inability to steer the country away from the crisis saw her impeached by Congress. Now, as the 2022 election looms, President Jair Bolsonaro faces an even gloomier outlook.

The president faces an uphill battle to win a second term. He is as unpopular as ever, and trailing far behind former President Lula in 2022 electoral simulations. Moreover, he and his family are involved in constant clashes with other institutions. 

Just months ago, multiple parties would be battling tooth and nail...