Opinion polls from this week underline just how hard a task Brazil’s “third-way” candidates will face in next year’s election, in a field dominated by center-left former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — the clear frontrunner — and far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.
According to PoderData, Lula is polling 38 points ahead in head-to-head simulations against Governors João Doria of São Paulo and Eduardo Leite of Rio Grande do Sul — the two presidential hopefuls of the mainstream right Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB). At this point, it seems unlikely that either governor would even have a chance of making it to a second-round runoff, with each polling in the low single digits overall.
As political scientist Thomas Traumann writes, the third way’s lack of appeal does not stem from a lack of alternatives — as the field is actually quite crowded — but rather a lack of purpose.
“A third way for what?” Mr. Traumann asks. “To take down [Mr.] Bolsonaro, Lula will suffice. And vice versa.” Without clear proposals differing third-way candidates from either of the two frontrunners, voters seem to be flocking toward Lula and Mr. Bolsonaro, seeing the pair as the only candidates with any chance of victory.
In that respect, there is one possible candidate who could gain an advantage over the other third-way hopefuls: Sérgio Moro, the former head judge of the Operation Car Wash anti-corruption investigation. Despite briefly serving as Justice Minister in the Bolsonaro government, he resigned last year and went down swinging, claiming Mr. Bolsonaro tried to tamper with federal investigations.
He could play the anti-corruption card, which has the potential of striking a chord with voters. A recent Datafolha poll shows that 61 percent of Brazilians believe corruption will get worse in Brazil.
Mr. Moro’s past within the biggest anti-corruption task force in Brazilian history — and his personal conflict with Lula — combined with his acrimonious exit from the government could give him the necessary credentials in...
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