Barely into the second half of his first year in office, and jockeying for position to replace Jair Bolsonaro has already begun. Most of the activity is on the center-right, with São Paulo Governor João Doria already being widely discussed as a possible 2022 candidate. Other possibilities wait in the wings, with TV personality Luciano Huck top of that list. But why is this question already being asked? And more fundamentally, is there any appetite in today’s Brazil for an establishment pro-market liberal politics?
It is no secret that big business’ choice in 2018 was Geraldo Alckmin, of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party. But no matter how much weight was thrown behind his him—due to coalition-building, he had more than double the TV time as his nearest challenger, for instance—his candidacy never took off. He registered his party’s worst-ever presidential performance, not even hitting 5 percent of first-round votes. For the main center-right party, this was a disaster.
In the second round, many pro-market liberals begrudgingly chose Mr. Bolsonaro as the lesser evil, rather than vote for the center-left Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party. They were swayed by Mr. Bolsonaro’s pro-privatization pick as Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes, as well as the presence of Sergio Moro at Justice.
But isn’t it obtuse to ask questions about 2022 now—the electoral cycle is mercifully much shorter in Brazil than in the U.S.—especially as Mr. Bolsonaro looks like he is about to deliver the number one item on the markets’ list, pension reform? Ironically, that may exactly be the reason for looking forward.
A lame-duck already?
There have been suggestions that the president has spent all his chips on pension reform. The government has not been especially effective in passing other bills it thought important, while other forthcoming initiatives, such as tax reform, are complex. The administration...
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